Sg2 Forecasts 18% Growth in Outpatient Care, 5% Inpatient Care

New analysis also highlights emerging trends in pediatric volumes, cancer patient population and impact of GLP-1s in diabetes management

Sg2, a Vizient^® company, today announced the release of the 2025 Impact of Change® Forecast, highlighting an 18% growth in adult outpatient (OP) volumes and a 5% increase in adult inpatient (IP) discharges over the next decade. The annual 10-year forecast provides insight into anticipated shifts in care delivery across the nation, including emerging trends in pediatric care, cancer outpatient volumes, the impact of GLP-1s on disease management and projections for post-acute care.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250623755700/en/

The annual Sg2 Impact of Change Forecast provides insights into anticipated shifts in care delivery, highlighting emerging trends across multiple service lines.

As care continues to shift to outpatient settings—reaching 6.03 billion volumes by 2035— annual inpatient discharges are still projected to reach 31.9 million by the end of the decade, with individuals aged 65+ accounting for more than half of these discharges. These patients will bring with them multiple comorbidities, such as congestive heart failure and behavioral health conditions, requiring longer and more intensive hospital stays. Inpatient days are expected to rise by 10%, to 175.8 million days—a trend that will exacerbate existing capacity issues.

At the same time pediatric OP growth is forecasted to grow 8% over the next ten years to 881.8 million volumes. Pediatric IP discharges will peak at 1.6 million next year, excluding births, before slowly declining throughout the decade due to changes in birth rates.

“These forecasts reflect a changing care landscape that will require health systems to adjust both their physical footprints and clinical operations,” said Tori Richie, senior director, Sg2 Intelligence. “Depending on the market, health systems may consider growing their post-acute footprint, investing in offerings, such as remote patient monitoring or virtual nursing to scale home-based care.”

The Impact of Change Forecast highlighted several service line trends across the nation, including:

Cancer outpatient volumes—Cancer OP volumes are expected to grow 18% to 222.0 million volumes over the decade while IP volumes remain flat. Rising cancer prevalence in young adults indicates the need for the development of new programs to better target, diagnose and treat this younger patient population.

“While the aging population continues to drive utilization and complexity, the increasing incidence of cancer in younger adults, particularly across certain tumor types in the 18 to 44 age group, adds a new challenge for providers as these patients are often diagnosed at later stages due to limited eligibility under traditional screening guidelines,” said Setu Shah, senior consultant, Sg2 Intelligence. “To meet the needs of a broader spectrum of patients who require more advanced care, cancer programs must manage the rapid pace of innovation while providing longitudinal care and coordinated services.”

GLP-1 update—Driven largely by consistent GLP-1 use, type 2 diabetes inpatient discharge growth will slow to 8%, or 693,000 discharges, versus a population-based forecast of 12% growth. This potential reduction has wide-ranging implications for capacity planning, chronic disease management programs, and financial projections across health systems.

“By 2035, evaluation and management visits for diabetes are expected to grow 26%, reflecting the intensive care management needed for diabetic patients on GLP-1s,” said Emily Fitt, senior consultant, Sg2 Intelligence.

Post-acute care—Post-acute care is expected to grow by 31% to 704 million patient volumes over the next decade, representing a significant opportunity to extend services to older and medically complex populations in a lower-cost setting. Health systems are encouraged to integrate home-based services into broader strategies for capacity management and care orchestration.

“The future of post-acute care is being written at home. Recovery is shifting from hospitals and skilled nursing facilities into living rooms and local communities—driven by the convergence of an aging population, consumer preferences/demand, system strain, and payer push for value,” said Nikita Arora, senior consultant, Sg2 Intelligence. “For lower-acuity procedures that are safe to recover from at home, health systems are scaling smarter, leaner care models: virtual rehab, remote monitoring, transitional care, and nurse-led recovery solutions that extend clinical precision beyond the hospital walls. It’s not just a site-of-care shift—it’s a redesign of recovery itself.”

Read more about the Sg2 Impact of Change.

About Sg2

Sg2, a Vizient company, is the health care industry's premier authority on health care trends, insights, and market analytics. Our analytics and expertise help hospitals and health systems achieve sustainable growth and ensure ongoing market relevance through the development of an effective System of CARE, implementation of novel payment model innovations, and consumer-driven solutions that activate patients and drive physician and customer loyalty. Learn more at www.sg2.com.

About Vizient, Inc.

Vizient, Inc., the nation’s largest provider-driven healthcare performance improvement company, serves more than 65% of the nation’s acute care providers, including 97% of the nation’s academic medical centers, and more than 35% of the non-acute market. The Vizient contract portfolio represents $140 billion in annual purchasing volume enabling the delivery of cost-effective, high-value care. With its acquisition of Kaufman Hall in 2024, Vizient expanded its advisory services to help providers achieve financial, strategic, clinical and operational excellence. Headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vizient has offices throughout the United States. Learn more at www.vizientinc.com.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250623755700/en/