Saia’s first quarter results fell short of market expectations, with management citing a combination of muted macroeconomic trends, weather disruptions in key regions, and the impact of ramping up new terminals as primary factors. CEO Fritz Holzgrefe described the quarter as a “speed bump,” noting that while shipment and tonnage growth were strong in recently opened markets, profitability lagged due to higher operating costs and underperformance in legacy facilities. The company’s cautious tone was evident as Holzgrefe acknowledged, “Customers, although satisfied with their service and value of our network expansion, appear cautious in the current backdrop and are taking a wait-and-see approach.”
Is now the time to buy SAIA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
Saia (SAIA) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $787.6 million vs analyst estimates of $813 million (4.3% year-on-year growth, 3.1% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $129.2 million vs analyst estimates of $157.8 million (16.4% margin, 18.1% miss)
- Operating Margin: 8.9%, down from 15.6% in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes rose 11% year on year (6.2% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $6.81 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions Saia’s Q1 Earnings Call
- Chris Wetherbee (Wells Fargo) asked about pricing strategy in light of yield pressure. CEO Fritz Holzgrefe explained that while pricing focus remains unchanged, “customers always challenge the pricing increases that we propose, and with a looser capacity environment, that gets a little bit louder.”
- John Chappell (Evercore ISI) pressed on whether sub-seasonal trends set a new baseline for operating ratio. CFO Matt Petay responded that trends in March and April have been similar, and the company is not modeling a near-term seasonal recovery.
- Fady Chamoun (BMO Capital Markets) questioned why heavier shipments did not produce better margins. Holzgrefe noted that “heavier weight per shipment at times does have higher or more difficult handling characteristics, so it does attract some additional costs.”
- Scott Group (Wolfe Research) asked if the spread between rising costs and modest revenue per shipment could take years to reverse. Holzgrefe said cost improvements should occur over quarters, not years, but cautioned that market normalization is needed for a meaningful rebound.
- Ravi Shanker (Morgan Stanley) inquired about volume weakness and potential share shifts to smaller or alternative carriers. Holzgrefe stated there was no clear evidence of significant share loss, but acknowledged that excess capacity and customer caution may be influencing current trends.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) the pace at which newer terminals achieve shipment density and profitability, (2) ongoing cost reduction and productivity initiatives—especially labor and equipment utilization, and (3) stabilization or recovery in legacy market volumes. We will also watch for signs of improvement in the macroeconomic environment and whether Saia’s national network leads to incremental customer wins as demand returns.
Saia currently trades at $256, down from $353.04 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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